More about Trend Analysis
The purpose of trend analysis is to spot a prevalent trend within a user group and/or to determine how a trend developed/would develop over time. This exercise helps identify new opportunities and ideas for concepts or products. Therefore, it is a good idea to conduct trend analysis during the early stage of the design phase.
Trend analysis as a design research methodology involves collecting data about users as well as from users. This data is then analyzed to determine a trend and is then analyzed further to determine its development over time.
However, there are times when a researcher is required to analyze an existing trend within a user group. In such cases, specific data is collected from the user groups by monitoring the trend carefully and closely to determine the cause of the trend. Determining the cause of the trend is more difficult than determining the trend. Again, certain factors such as time of day, season, geographic location, etc. must be affecting the trend and such factors must, therefore, be recorded while monitoring the trend.
Types of Trend Analysis
There are three types of trend analysis methods – geographic, temporal and intuitive.
Method
Purpose
Advantages
Disadvantages
Geographic
To analyze the trend within or across user groups defined by their geographic location.
- Easy and reliable.
- Helpful in figuring our commonalities and differences between user groups belonging to the same as well as different geographies.
- The analysis is limited to geography.
- May be influenced by factors such as culture, etc. specific to the user groups of the geography.
Temporal
To analyze the trend within or across user groups defined by specific time period(s) or change over time.
- Helpful in figuring relationships between user groups from different generations.
- Helpful in predicting future events based on those of the past.
- Historical data may not be an accurate representation of trends.
- The trend may not be replicable.
Intuitive
To analyze the trend within or across user groups based on some logical explanation, behavioral patterns or other elements perceived by a futurist.
Helpful when making predictions not backed by large amounts of statistical data.
- Over reliance on knowledge and logic of futurists/researchers.
- Prone to researcher bias.
- Most difficult form of trend analysis.
- Not exacting
Advantages of Trend Analysis
1. Large sample sizes
The availability of data and online tools available to handle large amounts of data allow for sampling of data quickly and applying the results to a variety of situations.
2. Verifiable
The results of trend analysis are easily verifiable.
3. Accurate
In case of statistical data, the analysis is very close to accurate. The use of numbers makes the analysis more exacting.
4. Replicable
A trend analysis can be replicated, verified, altered and adjusted when necessary.
Disadvantages of Trend Analysis
1. Distortions
Historical data may not be an accurate representation of a trend. A random event or pattern could distort overall findings and render incorrect result for an analysis.
2. Determining cause
It is very difficult to determine the cause of a trend.
3. Large sample sizes
For accurately and reliably analyzing a trend, large amount of data needs to be collected. This is both a time-consuming and costly affair.
4. Errors
A single error in recording a trend will add an error in the analysis rendering the results meaningless.